Bad news for an incumbent:

Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey by 21 points in an early look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Republican Primary. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican voters statewide say they’d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter.

In 2004, Specter hadn't demonstrated as much irresponsibility as he has now, he had exponentially higher name recognition than Toomey, he had the ferocious support of the Republican establishment (including the President and Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum), Republican voters feared losing their senate majority, and Specter still had a very difficult time beating Toomey, by less than two percent.

Today, none of these factors exist. There is no excuse for Toomey not to win - unless, of course, we take him for granted. So check out his website and throw your support behind him.